Ahead of Xi's Visit, American Companies Have Already Decided

American companies operating in China are not waiting for the Washington summit to revise their view: they already have. The American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai's annual report, published on 10 September, shows 58% of members optimistic about their five-year outlook, 17 points higher than in 2025 1. Xi Jinping is expected in the United States on 24 September 25. We believe the market still applies a geopolitical discount that companies, for their part, now treat as one risk among others.

The rebound in confidence rests on results, not promises. 78% of surveyed companies were profitable in 2025, the highest since 2019 1. The "in China for the world" strategy has become the top priority for 29% of them, ahead of "in China for China" at 24% 3. Half of members with R&D centres in China plan to raise that spending this year, up from one-third in 2025 3.

The most telling signal lies elsewhere. According to Trivium China, only 53% of respondents cite US-China tensions among their top three challenges, down from 66% in 2025. Competition from Chinese companies has become the top challenge 4. The perceived risk is no longer primarily political: it is primarily competitive.

The counter-argument holds. US intelligence agencies accuse Chinese labs of extracting capabilities from American AI models 4. And expectations for the summit remain low: Baiguan speaks of stabilisation, not a reset 5. But the thesis does not depend on a deal. Companies have priced in the risk: 28% of respondents increased their investment last year, a four-year high 3.

The bottom line

The discount applied to Chinese equities on geopolitical grounds, in our view, lags the reality on the ground and inside companies. The first beneficiaries could be Chinese suppliers embedded in multinationals' "in China for the world" supply chains, and technology companies competitive enough to worry their American rivals.

What to watch: the make-up of any business delegation accompanying Xi, any tariff or export-control announcement around the summit, and foreign companies' 2026 investment intentions.