Our publications and interventions
Published on October 29, 2026
The energy price spike is not reviving oil supply. In our view, it is being handed back to shareholders first. On 29 October, **Shell** reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of **$10.8bn** and anno...
Published on October 29, 2026
For transition metals, the thesis is no longer a basket trade. In our view, it is a metal-by-metal choice. On 20 October, BloombergNEF published its *Transition Metals Outlook 2026*. The verdict: **ni...
Published on October 29, 2026
The sell-off in gold miners punishes the metal price, not the business model. On 22 October, **Newmont** reported an average realized price of **$4,317 an ounce** for the third quarter, against an all...
Published on October 29, 2026
The fall in Polish bank profits is fiscal, not commercial. **Bank Pekao** reported on 29 October quarterly net profit of **PLN 1.516bn**, down **20.4%** year on year but about **3%** above consensus [...
Published on October 29, 2026
We think foreign investors no longer set the price of Indian equities: domestic savings have replaced them. In October, foreign institutions sold **Rs 451.62 billion** of shares in the cash market. Do...
Published on October 29, 2026
The "little giants" plan is a supply-side policy for China's small and mid-cap market. On 3 September, ten central government bodies published the 2026-2030 SME development plan. It targets **22,000**...
Published on September 21, 2026
The pipeline of new Western uranium production is thinner than the enthusiasm for new projects suggests. On 11 September, Boss Energy published a new mine plan for Honeymoon, in Australia: **13.8 mill...
Published on September 21, 2026
At today's copper price, buying production tends to cost less than building it. On 9 September, the LME three-month contract set a record of **$14,858 a tonne**, a day after a previous peak of **$14,7...
Published on September 21, 2026
The world's largest gold producer has chosen to return its cash without giving up on investment. **Newmont** generated record second-quarter free cash flow of **$2.2bn** and has repurchased **$1.7bn**...
Published on September 21, 2026
The meeting between Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping confirms a selective doctrine: India buys from China the tools of its own industrialisation, without opening the capital door wide. On **12 September**...
Published on September 21, 2026
Poland's reclassification as a developed market will work less through index flows than through the risk premium. S&P Dow Jones Indices announced the change of status in August, effective at the **Sep...
Published on September 21, 2026
American companies operating in China are not waiting for the Washington summit to revise their view: they already have. The American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai's annual report, published on 10 S...
Published on August 24, 2026
Emerging-market equities lost **86 billion dollars** of nonresident flows between the start of the year and the end of July, close to ten times the 9 billion outflow recorded at the same point in 2025...
Published on August 24, 2026
The International Energy Agency has published a finding that should hold any allocator's attention: critical mineral prices rebounded through 2025 and early 2026 as supply conditions tightened, while ...
Published on August 24, 2026
For years, gold producers disappointed the investors who bought them for leverage: bullion rose, the miners lagged. August broke that sequence. The VanEck gold miners index is up roughly **23.75%** ov...
Published on August 24, 2026
Poland is funding its reindustrialisation and its rearmament with debt, at a pace the region has not seen since joining the European Union. The general government deficit stood at **7.3% of gross dome...
Published on August 24, 2026
Two listed hospital groups, same country, same quarter, same regulatory framework, two unrelated results. Apollo Hospitals reported on 12 August revenue up **21%** and net profit of **₹581 crore**, up...
Published on August 24, 2026
China has left industrial deflation behind, but the price increase remains trapped upstream. The National Bureau of Statistics published on 10 August a producer price index up **3.5%** year on year in...
Published on April 28, 2026
Poland's inflation rebound to **3.0% in March 2026**, an eight-month high, postpones the rate-cut path of the Polish central bank (Narodowy Bank Polski, NBP) and weakens the central argument behind Po...
Published on April 28, 2026
The Chinese real estate market has entered a stabilisation phase that changes the nature of the debate. The recovery is no longer concentrated in Shanghai and Beijing: data from Chinese economic-news ...
Published on April 28, 2026
India's formalisation enters its judicial chapter. The gradual transition from a largely informal economy (cash transactions, unregistered businesses, fragmented taxation) to a traceable, fiscalised o...
Published on March 25, 2026
India's three largest private hospital chains have simultaneously launched the most aggressive expansion cycle in a decade. **Apollo Hospitals**, **Max Healthcare**, and **Fortis Healthcare** plan to ...
Published on March 22, 2026
Germany voted in early 2026 for the largest public investment programme in its history: EUR 500 billion earmarked for infrastructure, defence and the energy transition [1]. Berlin is looking inward, b...
Published on March 22, 2026
The 20 February 2026 ruling, handed down by a 6-3 majority, constitutes the most consequential geopolitical development since the first Huawei sanctions in 2018. The United States Supreme Court ruled ...
China's re-rating is under way, yet the market remains one of the cheapest in the world: Chinese equities trade at roughly 14 times forward earnings as of end-August 2026, against about 20 times for US equities [1], and the yuan, back around 6.70 per dollar in early October, remains a performance driver for the euro-based investor [2]. The thesis no longer rests on the discount alone: it rests on three engines, valuation, currency and stock selection.
Last updated: Oct 2026
Last updated: Oct 2026
Central and Eastern Europe offers emerging-market growth with Western governance: the IMF projects about 2% growth in 2026 for emerging Europe against 0.9% in the euro area [1], with MSCI EM Europe trading at a marked discount to developed Europe and a higher dividend yield. The recent cycle confirms the thesis: record bank earnings, disinflation achieved in the region's core, and cross-border banking consolidation led by local players.
Last updated: Oct 2026
Published on March 9, 2026
The war with Iran fits into the U.S. strategy of controlling energy and maritime routes against China. From the Panama Canal to the Strait of Hormuz, through Suez and the Arctic, the 'new mercantilism' imposes a new lens for long-term investors.
Published on February 15, 2025
L'occident découvre que la Chine domine la plupart des industries d'avenir. Avec la valorisation la plus basse de son histoire et la meilleure configuration macroéconomique possible, le marché chinois représente une opportunité historique.
Published on January 15, 2025
140 milliards de dollars investis en 20 jours créent 3 500 milliards de « valeur ». L'Hypothèse des Marchés Inélastiques déconstruit les mythes narratifs et révèle que les flux expliquent la quasi-totalité des performances dites exceptionnelles.
Published on June 15, 2024
Les acronymes symbolisent les narratifs perpétuellement à l'œuvre. La concentration des grands indices est une histoire cyclique, qui rime souvent avec bulle. La part croissante de la gestion passive modifie le comportement structurel des marchés.
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