Uranium: New Western Supply Is Late, Small and Partly Co-Financed by Beijing

The pipeline of new Western uranium production is thinner than the enthusiasm for new projects suggests. On 11 September, Boss Energy published a new mine plan for Honeymoon, in Australia: 13.8 million pounds over nine years, following a downward revision of its resources (−15.1 million pounds versus the 2019 estimate) 1. Guidance for fiscal 2027 is 1.25 to 1.30 million pounds 1, below the 1.41 million produced in fiscal 2026 2. The stakes are clear: only a high long-term price will bring the next projects forward.

The large projects are arriving late. In Namibia, Bannerman raised A$124 million for Etango, targets an investment decision in the fourth quarter of 2026, and plans output of 3.5 million pounds a year 3. Its partner, a subsidiary of China National Nuclear Corporation, will hold 45% of the project 3. In Canada, Paladin will not decide on Patterson Lake South until the end of 2027, with first production in 2031 4.

The term market already reflects this scarcity. According to TradeTech's weekly indicators reported on 15 September, the spot price stood at $90 a pound and the long-term indicator at $97 5. Cameco estimates utilities' uncovered requirements at 3.1 billion pounds through 2045, about 65% of their needs 5.

The objection is the classic one: capital is flowing in, and higher prices always trigger a wave of projects. Bannerman did close its raise. But short sellers remain active in the sector: 9.36% of Boss and 10.95% of Paladin were sold short as of 7 September 5. The market doubts the speed of ramp-ups, and new supply will not close the deficit before the next decade.

The bottom line

In our view, uranium scarcity benefits producers already in operation first, as they sign contracts at long-term prices today. Permitted, low-cost assets come next. Distant developers remain exposed to execution risk.

What to watch: the investment decision on Etango, the construction licence for Patterson Lake South, a long-term price above $100, and the US defence request for 4 million pounds a year from 2030 5.